Well isn’t THAT an exciting title? :-)

About a month back I began talking with a friend about the propensity of the stock market to fall. I was arguing that, although you can’t predict the future and never will, the likelihood for a recession seems as likely now as it has in a very long time. His prerogative was that the US economy was still on the rise and hadn’t yet plateaued.

It led me to consider a few indications of what’s happening. The first and biggest thing to look at is unemployment rate–it’s one of the largest indicators of economic health:

latest_numbers_LNS14000000_1950_2015_all_period_M12_data

You can see that our unemployment rate is approaching historic lows. I remember back in 2008 when the political landscape was so fraught with turmoil and attacks on the president. Of course, the president was brand new at the time and had to begin a program to stem the rising unemployment as corporations cut jobs in order to satisfy their investors and prepare for a winter where citizens refused to purchase goods or cut back on many other things. It’s very interesting how cyclical economics are.

I personally believe we are likely entering a 2-3 year recessionary period. Hopefully that thought is wrong, recessions aren’t fun and a lot of people suffer when they happen. But the natural rise and fall of economics will pull like gravity. What goes up simply must come down.